交运行业2024年三季报业绩前瞻：Q3业绩趋势预期充分，建议逆向布局

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [7][24]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the aviation industry is expected to see a year-on-year decline in profitability for Q3 2024, with cautious revenue strategies from airlines [5][6]. - The oil shipping sector is projected to experience a decline in VLCC profitability year-on-year, while MR profitability is expected to remain stable [6]. - The report suggests a contrarian investment strategy for both aviation and oil shipping sectors, anticipating recovery in demand and profitability in the medium term [6][7]. Summary by Sections Aviation Industry - For Q3 2024, the aviation sector's ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) is estimated to grow by 11% year-on-year, with a 4 percentage point increase in passenger load factor compared to the same period in 2019 [5]. - Despite the growth in capacity, passenger revenue is expected to decline by over 10% year-on-year, approaching levels seen in Q3 2019 [5]. - Fuel costs are projected to decrease slightly due to a drop in international oil prices, although they remain approximately 30% higher than in Q3 2019 [5]. - The report anticipates that the cautious revenue management strategies of airlines will lead to a year-on-year decline in industry profitability for Q3 2024, with some smaller airlines like Juneyao Airlines expected to perform better than the industry average [5][6]. Oil Shipping Industry - The VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) sector is expected to see a significant year-on-year decline in profitability, with average TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) rates for Q3 2024 estimated at $28,000, which is below the breakeven point [6]. - The MR (Medium Range) sector's profitability is expected to remain stable, with TCE rates for the Singapore-Australia route estimated at $24,000, showing little change year-on-year [6]. - The report emphasizes a contrarian investment approach for oil shipping, highlighting the robust demand growth driven by trade restructuring and refinery relocations, despite short-term geopolitical pressures [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining positions in key aviation stocks such as Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [6][7]. - For the oil shipping sector, it suggests maintaining positions in China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, and China Merchants Industry [6][7].