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财政发力基调明确,可能提振股市
Huajin Securities·2024-10-12 13:57

Group 1 - The overall tone of the fiscal policy is positive, with a focus on debt resolution and real estate storage [5][6] - The government plans to increase the debt limit for replacing local government hidden debts significantly, indicating a potential scale exceeding market expectations of 2 trillion [6][7] - Policies to support the real estate sector include using special bonds for purchasing existing housing and allowing special bonds for land reserves, which may improve market expectations [6][17] Group 2 - The fiscal policy's emphasis on debt resolution, real estate, technology, and core assets may benefit related industries [14][15] - The government has initiated capital replenishment for major state-owned banks, which is expected to enhance their risk resistance and credit issuance capabilities [6][7] - The focus on supporting consumption, healthcare, education, and other livelihood sectors may lead to increased foreign investment in core assets such as pharmaceuticals and consumer goods [23][29] Group 3 - The report highlights that the A-share market may experience short, medium, and long-term boosts from the clear fiscal policy direction [14][15] - The short-term outlook suggests that the A-share market may stabilize and recover due to positive policy signals, alleviating previous investor concerns [14][15] - The long-term conditions for a bull market are improving, with fiscal policy likely to enhance profit growth and market fundamentals [14][15] Group 4 - The report indicates that the fiscal policy will likely lead to increased investment in emerging industries such as AI, semiconductor, and commercial aerospace [23][24] - Recent data shows a significant increase in fixed asset investment in the computer, communication, and other electronic sectors, maintaining a growth rate of 14.2% [28] - The commercial aerospace market is projected to grow by 23.3% year-on-year, indicating a robust development phase [28]