Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural sector, consistent with the previous rating [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong performance in the pig farming sector for Q3, with both average prices and output from listed companies exceeding the same period in 2023. The report suggests continued recommendations for leading pig farming companies with low breeding costs due to low current valuations [3][4]. - In the pet food sector, Q3 shows positive trends with significant growth in domestic pet consumption and an increase in market share for domestic brands. The report recommends focusing on pet food companies that are experiencing rapid growth in Q3 [4]. - The seed sector is impacted by declining grain prices, which may affect the pre-sale progress of seeds. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of genetically modified crops in the upcoming harvest [4]. - The animal health sector is expected to see a recovery in demand due to rising pig prices, although competition remains intense for some products. The report suggests focusing on companies with differentiated animal health products and those with rapidly expanding downstream demand [4]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Q3 performance remains strong, with cautious capacity expansion noted in September. The report indicates that the number of breeding sows is growing slowly, with a slight decrease in some samples. The report anticipates a further decline in the speed of sow replenishment in Q4, leading to sustained low production growth [3][4]. Pet Food - The domestic pet food market is experiencing overall growth in Q3, with online sales platforms showing positive growth. The report notes that domestic brands are likely to gain market share due to their rapid growth [4]. Seed Industry - The report indicates that the decline in corn and wheat prices may affect the ordering enthusiasm of downstream distributors, potentially leading to a decrease in pre-sales for some seed companies. It also highlights the importance of monitoring the results of genetically modified corn planting [4]. Animal Health - The report suggests that rising pig prices may restore demand for animal health products, alleviating some performance pressures. However, competition remains fierce for certain products, and the report recommends focusing on companies with unique offerings and strong demand growth [4]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Post-cycle: KQ Bio, He Feng Co., Hai Da Group - Pig farming: Mu Yuan Co., Wen's Co., Tian Kang Bio, Shen Nong Group - Seed industry: Da Bei Nong, Long Ping High-Tech - Pet sector beneficiaries: Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., Petty Co. [4][35].
农业行业周报：关注养殖产业链Q3业绩改善
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-12 14:03