食饮行业周报（2024年10月第1期）：Q3或迎降速换挡，关注增速可持续

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is expected to experience a "beta first, alpha later, three-phase upward trend" [1][2] - The first phase focuses on denominator logic and positioning, the second phase emphasizes strong Q3 performance from leading liquor companies, and the third phase highlights mid-term focus on resilient and high-certainty leading stocks, with a validation period expected around the 2025 Spring Festival [1][2] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The pessimistic expectations regarding liquor sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day have been released, and attention should shift to sustainable growth and macro policy catalysts [1][15] - Investment strategies are transitioning from high-dividend stable assets to a more aggressive approach that balances fundamentals and flexibility, with a focus on leading liquor companies priced between 200-400 RMB, such as Fenjiu and Gujing [1][15] - Recommended stock combinations include: - Leading stocks: Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao - Flexible stocks: Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, Jianshiyuan, and Laobai Ganjiu [1][15] Consumer Goods Sector - The outlook for soft drinks and snack foods remains positive for Q3 2024, with recent policies potentially boosting demand in the restaurant supply chain, benefiting sub-sectors like frozen foods, condiments, and beer in Q4 2024 [21] - Investment recommendations are shifting towards an aggressive strategy, favoring the following combinations: - Flexible stocks: Jin Zai Foods, Three Squirrels, Yanjinpuzi, and Qianwei Yangchu - Leading stocks: Anji Foods, Haitian Flavoring, Qingdao Beer, Yili Group, Dongpeng Beverage, and Angel Yeast [21] Market Performance - From October 8 to October 11, the CSI 300 index fell by 3.25%, while the food and beverage sector declined by 7.47%, with notable movements in various sub-sectors [26] - The liquor sector saw a significant decline of 8.21%, with specific companies experiencing varied performance, such as Shede Liquor (+9.42%) and Huatai Liquor (-23.02%) [26][29]