社服零售行业2024三季报前瞻：出海及出行保持高景气，关注线下消费及服务边际改善

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [2] Core Viewpoints - The outbound service sector shows high prosperity with expected strong performance in Q3 2024, driven by robust participation in overseas exhibitions and a low base from the previous year [4][25] - Tourism consumption remains resilient, with scenic spots and outbound travel operations improving, benefiting companies like Jiuhua Tourism and Ctrip Group [4][10][25] - Offline retail is experiencing a transformation, with a focus on traditional business adjustments and high prosperity in IP retail, as seen in Miniso's significant growth in IP product sales [4][17][25] - The restaurant industry faces pressure on same-store sales, but high-value brands are expected to perform better, with strategies like franchise expansion and overseas growth being key [4][21][25] Summary by Sections 1. Outbound Services - Strong willingness for companies to participate in overseas exhibitions, with notable performances from Miaowei Exhibition in Q3 [4] - Yiwu market maintains high prosperity, with significant growth in import and export values [4] 2. Cross-Border E-commerce - Stable demand with expected revenue growth, although profit margins may be pressured by international shipping costs and currency fluctuations [5][8] 3. Tourism - Domestic tourism shows strong recovery, with significant increases in visitor numbers and spending [10][13] - Scenic spots are expected to benefit from improved transportation and project upgrades [10][25] 4. Offline Retail - Traditional retail is undergoing adjustments to improve store efficiency, while IP retail continues to thrive [17][19] - Miniso's global expansion and strong sales in IP products highlight the sector's potential [17][25] 5. Restaurant Industry - National restaurant revenue growth is slowing, with a focus on high-value brands to navigate competitive pressures [21][25] 6. Investment Recommendations - Three main investment lines are suggested: outbound services, tourism, and offline retail, with specific companies highlighted for potential growth [25]