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10.12国新办发布会点评:财政调节加力,政策未完待续
Guoyuan Securities·2024-10-13 01:03

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Insights - The Ministry of Finance emphasized that there is ample policy space to increase fiscal efforts while achieving annual budget goals, particularly through raising debt and deficit levels[2] - It is estimated that the fiscal revenue gap for 2024 will be filled by issuing an additional CNY 2 to 3 trillion in government bonds to achieve budget balance[2] - The government aims to support economic growth, expand domestic demand, and mitigate risks through targeted fiscal policies, especially in local government debt management and the real estate sector[2] Group 2: Debt Management and Local Government Support - A significant increase in the debt limit is proposed to replace local governments' hidden debts, which is expected to alleviate pressure on local governments and free up resources for economic development[3] - The Ministry of Finance plans to effectively supplement local government financial resources by CNY 400 billion, encouraging the activation of idle assets to improve fiscal resource efficiency[3] - The issuance of special bonds will be utilized for land reserves and purchasing existing residential properties to balance supply and demand in the real estate market[3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The Shanghai Composite Index was reported at 3217.74, while the Shenzhen Component Index reached 10060.74, indicating a recovery in market sentiment[4] - Following the announcement of a series of fiscal policies, market liquidity is expected to improve, reducing concerns about economic downturn risks and enhancing confidence in stable growth[7] - The recent surge in trading volume, with A-shares reaching a historical high of CNY 3.5 trillion on October 8, reflects increased market activity and investor confidence[3]