对2021年以来疫情和地产冲击的实证分析：关于中国消费者行为变化的事件研究

Consumer Behavior and Economic Impact - The COVID-19 pandemic and real estate market shocks since 2021 have significantly impacted consumer behavior, leading to a contraction in consumption due to reduced income and wealth effects[1] - Post-2021, working-age populations experienced greater consumption slowdowns compared to retirees, indicating that income effects dominate over wealth effects[1] - Consumer confidence and income expectations have declined, further exacerbating the contraction in real estate demand and reinforcing wealth effects[1] Empirical Analysis and Regression Results - Regression analysis shows that post-2021, a 1% increase in disposable income led to a smaller increase in consumption (2.352%) compared to pre-2021 (3.030%)[6] - A 1% decline in second-hand housing prices post-2021 resulted in a 0.506% decline in consumption, highlighting the increased sensitivity of consumption to housing price changes[9] - The interaction term between housing prices and consumer income confidence shows that higher income expectations can mitigate the negative impact of housing price declines on consumption[16] Employment and Structural Transition - The transition in industrial structure has led to a mismatch between the speed of new job creation and the decline of old industries, particularly in real estate, construction, and services[19] - Private sector employment, especially in real estate, has seen significant declines, with a notable drop in the number of employees contributing to housing provident funds[20] - Stabilizing employment and income growth expectations is crucial for boosting domestic demand, with real estate market stability being a key factor[22]