有色金属行业2024年三季报前瞻：再通胀预期叠加需求向好预期，看好工业金属弹性

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [2] Core Views - The report anticipates a favorable demand outlook for industrial metals, driven by macroeconomic factors and policy support, which is expected to benefit the sector [2][8] - Gold prices have shown strong performance in 2024, with COMEX gold rising 28.04% to $2,647.3 per ounce as of October 10, 2024, indicating potential benefits for gold stocks [2][13] - Copper prices have increased by 14.12% to $9,737.5 per ton, supported by policy initiatives and improving demand expectations [19][21] - Aluminum prices have risen by 11.42% to $2,591.0 per ton, with inventory levels continuing to decline amid improved macro sentiment [23][25] - Tin prices have increased due to tight supply expectations and favorable macroeconomic conditions, with LME tin averaging $30,700 per ton in Q3 2024, up 16.70% year-on-year [26][27] - Antimony prices are expected to rise due to ongoing supply tightness, with antimony concentrate averaging 132,700 yuan per ton in Q3 2024, up 96.96% year-on-year [5] - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium and neodymium, have reached low levels, with the average price at 372,200 yuan per ton, down 23.52% year-on-year [7] Summary by Sections Gold - As of October 10, 2024, COMEX gold has risen 28.04% to $2,647.3 per ounce, with a decrease in inventory [2][13] - The report suggests that gold remains a strong hedge against potential inflation in 2025 [8][18] Copper - As of October 10, 2024, LME copper has increased 14.12% to $9,737.5 per ton, with significant inventory increases [19][21] - The demand from the electric vehicle market is contributing to copper's upward price trajectory [21] Aluminum - As of October 10, 2024, LME aluminum has risen 11.42% to $2,591.0 per ton, with inventory levels decreasing [23][25] - The report highlights a recovery in demand due to seasonal factors and government stimulus [25] Tin - In Q3 2024, LME tin averaged $30,700 per ton, up 16.70% year-on-year, driven by supply constraints [26][27] - The report notes a potential widening supply gap in 2024 due to limited new production [26] Antimony - Antimony prices are expected to rise due to tight supply conditions, with Q3 2024 prices averaging 132,700 yuan per ton [5] - The report indicates that domestic production challenges may limit future supply increases [5] Rare Earths - The average price for praseodymium and neodymium is at 372,200 yuan per ton, reflecting a 23.52% year-on-year decline [7] - The report discusses regulatory changes that may impact supply dynamics in the rare earth sector [7]