券商板块三季报前瞻：三季度股债双牛助力业绩大幅改善，乐观看待三季报行情

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Viewpoints - The third quarter saw significant improvement in performance due to a bullish trend in both stock and bond markets, leading to a substantial increase in investment income [2][7] - The average daily trading volume in the first three quarters of 2024 decreased by 11% year-on-year, amounting to 797.3 billion yuan [2] - The financing scale for equity and bond markets has decreased year-on-year, with IPOs and other financing activities showing significant declines [2] - The performance of the equity and bond markets in the first three quarters of 2024 was much better than the same period last year, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index increasing by 12.2% and 6.4% respectively [2] Summary by Sections Market Conditions - The average daily trading volume for the first three quarters of 2024 was 797.3 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year [2] - The average balance of margin financing decreased by 6% year-on-year, totaling 1.49 trillion yuan [2] - The financing scale for IPOs, additional issuances, and placements was 479 billion yuan, 1,195 billion yuan, and 0 billion yuan respectively, showing declines of 85%, 75%, and 100% year-on-year [2] - The equity market and bond market performed significantly better than the previous year, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index showing increases of 12.2% and 6.4% respectively in the first three quarters [2] Performance of Listed Securities Firms - The estimated operating revenue for listed securities firms in the first three quarters of 2024 is approximately 311.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is estimated at 110.3 billion yuan, an increase of 0.3% year-on-year [3][10] - Revenue from brokerage, proprietary trading, interest income, investment banking, and asset management businesses were approximately 66.7 billion yuan, 130.9 billion yuan, 23.5 billion yuan, 19.8 billion yuan, and 35.4 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -13.2%, +27.4%, -31.4%, -43.8%, and +2.0% [3][10] Policy and Economic Environment - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and domestic monetary and fiscal policies are expected to stabilize the market and economy, directly benefiting the capital market and securities firms [6] - Recent measures include the establishment of a structural monetary policy tool to support the capital market, which is expected to provide liquidity and support for securities firms [6][7]