财政部国新办发布会解读：应对需求不足，财政治标更治本

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Insights - The Ministry of Finance is expected to announce the scale of incremental fiscal tools at the upcoming National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting in late October or early November[1] - The actual public finance revenue for 2024 may fall short of the budget by 1.5 trillion yuan, necessitating adjustments to the budget and potential issuance of additional government bonds[1] - The leadership indicated that the deficit rate may exceed 3% in the future, suggesting a more flexible fiscal policy approach[1] Group 2: Economic Recovery Strategies - The focus is on addressing insufficient demand through a combination of short-term and long-term fiscal measures, with an emphasis on repairing the balance sheets of local governments, enterprises, and households[1] - Four policies currently in decision-making processes aim to enhance local government financial capacity and support state-owned banks' capital, thereby boosting credit availability[1] - Allowing special bonds for land acquisition and supporting the cash flow of real estate companies is expected to stabilize housing prices and improve household balance sheets[1] Group 3: Market Implications - The combination of deficit financing, special bonds, and long-term bonds is seen as a more sustainable approach to enhancing market risk appetite compared to one-off large-scale stimulus measures[1] - Future observations will focus on the outcomes of the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and the actual effects of the fiscal policies on the economy and expectations[1] - The report highlights potential risks from domestic and international policy changes and geopolitical conflicts that could impact the effectiveness of these fiscal measures[1]