公用事业3Q24E业绩前瞻：火电环比改善，水电增速趋稳

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a quarter-on-quarter improvement in thermal power generation and profitability for Q3 2024, while hydropower growth is expected to stabilize [2][4]. - The report highlights the potential for industry value reassessment due to tight supply-demand dynamics and the impact of electricity market reforms [4]. Summary by Sections Thermal Power - Q3 2024 is expected to see a rise in thermal power utilization rates, with a year-on-year improvement anticipated starting from August 2024 [4]. - The average price of thermal coal remains stable, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price at 848 CNY/ton, showing minimal fluctuation [4]. - Profitability for thermal power companies in Q3 2024 is expected to vary significantly based on regional factors and exposure to coal prices [4][20]. Hydropower - Hydropower generation growth is projected to slow down due to base effect impacts, with notable differences in water inflow across regions [4]. - Major hydropower companies are expected to report varied performance, influenced by geographical location and water storage strategies [4][20]. Nuclear Power - Nuclear power performance is expected to remain stable, with companies benefiting from installed capacity and maintenance schedules [4]. - The report suggests that the long-term implied return rates for nuclear power are worth monitoring [4]. New Energy - The report notes a divergence in profitability among new energy operators, with growth driven by policy changes and project locations [4]. - As of August 2024, the installed capacity for wind and solar power reached 474 GW and 752 GW, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 19.9% and 48.8% [4][18]. Recommendations - The report recommends investing in high-quality hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and Sichuan Investment Energy, and selecting thermal power stocks with strong regional advantages like Guodian Power and Huaneng International [4][20]. - For nuclear power, it suggests focusing on China General Nuclear Power and China National Nuclear Power, while for new energy, it recommends Yunnan Energy Investment [4].