轻工制造行业定期报告：市场情绪低点已过，顺周期修复趋势无虞

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the low point of market sentiment has passed, and there is a sustained positive outlook for the cyclical sub-sectors, particularly in home furnishings and paper manufacturing [1][4]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the home furnishings sector due to improved real estate policies and consumer confidence [1]. - The paper industry is expected to see a recovery in demand as waste paper prices stabilize and economic expectations improve [1][4]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishings - The home furnishings sector is characterized as a typical post-cyclical real estate segment, benefiting from both cyclical and discretionary consumer spending attributes. Recent real estate policy improvements and boosted consumer confidence are expected to enhance market sentiment [1][4]. - Despite short-term pressures on consumer demand, the report anticipates a recovery in fundamentals, supported by new subsidy policies and increased terminal support from headquarters [1][4]. - Key companies to watch include Oppein Home, Sophia, and Joyoung, among others [1]. Paper Manufacturing - As of October 11, 2024, the prices for various paper products are as follows: double glue paper at 5212.5 CNY/ton (down 37.5 CNY), copper plate paper at 5500 CNY/ton (unchanged), white card paper at 4205 CNY/ton (down 55 CNY), box board paper at 3601.4 CNY/ton (up 6.8 CNY), and corrugated paper at 2606.25 CNY/ton (up 18.75 CNY) [2][25]. - The report notes that the paper industry has seen a year-on-year revenue increase of 5.3% from January to August 2024, with a cumulative sales profit margin of 3.1%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.32 percentage points [31][29]. - Companies such as Nine Dragons Paper and Sun Paper are highlighted for their strong positioning in the market [1][4]. Consumer Goods - The report emphasizes the growth potential of consumer goods companies like Morning Glory and Baia, which are expanding their product lines and market reach [4]. - The report also mentions the positive outlook for companies involved in essential consumer products, particularly those with strong distribution networks and product optimization strategies [4]. Export and Shipping - The report notes a decrease in shipping costs, with the CCFI and SCFI indices down by 9.9% and 3.4% respectively, indicating potential improvements in export profitability for companies in the sector [4][24]. Overall Market Performance - The light industry manufacturing sector has underperformed the market, with a decline of 7.01% compared to a 3.25% drop in the CSI 300 index over the past week [10][15].