食品饮料行业周度更新：政策发力预期改善，优先布局零食赛道

Industry Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for the Food & Beverage industry [4] Core Views - Fiscal policy support is expected to improve deflationary expectations, with performance differentiation likely to emerge [3] - The snack sector is prioritized for investment due to its resilience and high growth potential, while the beverage sector shows strong performance, and the beer sector is expected to see improved prospects by 2025 [3][7] - The liquor sector experienced a 20% decline in sales during the National Day holiday, with high-end and mid-to-high-end products underperforming, while products priced below 300 RMB performed better [8][9] Policy and Macro Environment - Fiscal policies announced by the Ministry of Finance include measures to strengthen debt resolution, issue special bonds, support real estate, and enhance livelihood protection [7] - September CPI rose by 0.4% YoY, with a 0.3% average increase from January to September, indicating potential easing of deflationary pressures [7] Liquor Sector - Moutai saw a moderate increase in wholesale prices during the holiday, with post-holiday prices declining by 50 RMB to 2320 RMB (case) and 2250 RMB (bottle) as of October 12 [8] - Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao reported collection rates of 90%-100% and 75% respectively, with Moutai at 80%-90% [9] - High-end liquor sales declined by double digits during the holiday, with Wuliangye performing relatively better [9] Snack Sector - The snack sector is expected to maintain high growth in Q3 2024, with leading companies like Three Squirrels, Salt & Pepper Food, and Jinzi Food benefiting from seasonal demand and low-price gift packages [7][13] - Three Squirrels reported a Q3 net profit of 48.1-52 million RMB, up 200.45%-224.81% YoY, driven by its high-value-for-money strategy [13] Beverage Sector - Dongpeng Beverage achieved revenue of 12.4-12.72 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, up 43.5%-47.2% YoY, with net profit rising 57%-65% to 2.6-2.73 billion RMB [13] - The beer sector is expected to see improved prospects by 2025, driven by easing deflationary pressures and recovery in the catering sector [7] Investment Recommendations - Liquor: Focus on undervalued stocks such as Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, Moutai, Jinshiyuan, and Gujing Gongjiu [3][15] - Snacks and Catering Supply Chain: Prioritize Three Squirrels, Qiaqia Food, Salt & Pepper Food, Jinzi Food, Anjoy Food, Baoli Food, and Qianhe Weiyi [3][15] - Beverage and Beer: Recommend increasing holdings in Tsingtao Beer, Harbin Beer, Bairun, Yanjing Beer, Chongqing Beer, and Dongpeng Beverage [3][15]