Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the social services industry [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes a focus on cyclical recovery expectations, highlighting that policy implementation has exceeded expectations, which supports a cyclical recovery. Recommended sectors include dining, hotels, and human resources services [3]. - The competitive landscape for vertical O2O companies has significantly improved, with expectations for both volume and price increases in service industries. Specific recommendations include TuHoo-W [3]. - The education sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with recommendations for undervalued stocks with sustainable performance, such as Excellent Education, Thinker Education, Chalk, and Action Education [3]. - The affordable overseas retail market remains highly prosperous, with recommendations for Miniso, Small Commodity City, Huakai Yibai, and Anker Innovation [3]. - The tourism sector continues to gain momentum, with a focus on travel chains and recommendations for Tongcheng Travel, Ctrip Group-S, SanTe Cableway, Jiuhua Tourism, and Changbai Mountain [3]. - The rise of domestic brands underpins a long-term investment logic for gold jewelry, with recommendations for LaoPu Gold, CaiBai Co., LaoFengXiang, ZhouDaSheng, ZhouDaFu, ChaoHongJi, and China Gold [3]. Industry Updates and Data - The report notes that after the National Day holiday, the average price of domestic flights dropped by nearly 30%, and hotel prices in major cities fell by over 20% [3]. - According to the China Culinary Association, restaurant revenue during the National Day holiday increased by 2% year-on-year, with customer traffic up by 5.6% [3]. - Data from Ctrip indicates that travel orders from the silver-haired population (aged 50 and above) increased by nearly 20% compared to 2023 during the week following the holiday [3]. - The retail sector is seeing significant developments, including the opening of the first "Learning Pang Donglai" Yonghui Supermarket in Guangdong and the announcement of JD.com's "Double 11" event starting on October 14 [3]. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - ZhouDaFu (1929.HK) with a projected PE of 10 for 2024 [5]. - LaoFengXiang (600612.SH) with a projected PE of 12 for 2024 [5]. - Miniso (9896.HK) with a projected PE of 14 for 2024 [5]. - Tongcheng Travel (0780.HK) with a projected PE of 14 for 2024 [6]. - Ctrip Group (9961.HK) with a projected PE of 22 for 2024 [6].
商社行业周报：节后机酒价格回落，银发人群错峰出行
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-13 07:10