TENCENT(00700) 国信证券·2024-10-13 07:11Investment Rating - Tencent Holdings (00700 HK) maintains an "Outperform" rating [2][4][13] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 1684 billion in 2024Q3, a 9% YoY growth, with adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 555 billion, up 24% YoY [3][5] - The company's advertising business is expected to grow 16% YoY, driven by video account traffic and the launch of the advertising system 3 0 [3][5] - The gaming business is projected to grow 13% YoY, with domestic games up 15% and overseas games up 9% [3][7] - Financial technology and enterprise services are expected to grow 3% YoY, impacted by macroeconomic conditions [3][5] Business Segment Analysis Gaming - Domestic gaming revenue is expected to grow 15% YoY, with key games like "Peace Elite" and "Naruto Mobile" showing strong performance [7] - Overseas gaming revenue is projected to grow 9% YoY, with "Brawl Stars" maintaining a strong position [7] - "DNF Mobile" saw a decline in user numbers but remains a top performer in the iOS bestseller rankings [7][8] Advertising - Advertising revenue is expected to grow 16% YoY, supported by video account traffic and the launch of the advertising system 3 0 [3][10] - WeChat Mini Stores have activated full-domain traffic, potentially accelerating video account growth [10] - AI-powered advertising is expected to improve CTR by 5-10% [10] Financial Technology & Enterprise Services - Revenue is expected to grow 3% YoY, with payment services impacted by macroeconomic conditions [3][11] - High-margin businesses like wealth management are growing healthily [4] Financial Forecasts - Adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is forecasted at RMB 2198/2482/2729 billion, with a slight downward revision of 1% for each year [4][13] - Target price is set at HKD 471-528, based on a 16-18x PE ratio for 2025 [4][13] Key Financial Metrics - 2024Q3 revenue is expected to reach RMB 1684 billion, with a gross margin of 53% and a Non-IFRS net margin of 33% [6] - Adjusted EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at RMB 24 05/26 23/28 03 [16]