研究院专题报告：国新办财政部会议解读

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Overview - The Ministry of Finance stated that China has sufficient fiscal resilience to achieve budget balance and meet annual targets[1] - From January to September 2024, national general public budget expenditure reached 20.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%[1] - The total national general public budget expenditure for 2024 is projected at 28.549 trillion yuan, reflecting a 4% year-on-year growth[1] Group 2: Debt Management and Support Measures - The central government will allocate 400 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support local financial capacity and address existing project debts[1] - There is a total of 2.3 trillion yuan in special bond funds available for use in the next three months[1] - The Ministry plans to increase the debt limit significantly to replace local government hidden debts, marking the largest support measure for debt resolution in recent years[3] Group 3: Economic Stimulus and Social Support - A package of targeted policies will be introduced to stabilize growth, expand domestic demand, and mitigate risks, including support for local debt resolution and capital replenishment for state-owned banks[3] - The Ministry has allocated 66.7 billion yuan in employment subsidies to support key groups such as recent graduates[3] - Future policies will focus on enhancing support for vulnerable groups and optimizing tax policies related to housing[3] Group 4: Market Reactions and Expectations - The market anticipates increased fiscal transfers to local governments to cover budget shortfalls and ensure necessary expenditures[4] - The bond market is expected to remain in a volatile state as it awaits clarity on future policy measures[4] - The overall direction of fiscal policy is confirmed to be an increase in counter-cyclical adjustments, with gradual implementation expected[4]