研究院专题报告：财政部新闻发布会对黑色板块走势的影响

Group 1: Market Performance - The black sector experienced a significant increase, with rebar rising by 1.88%, iron ore by 2.23%, coking coal by 2.28%, coking by 3.08%, soda ash by 6.35%, and glass by 6.69% during the night session on Friday[3] - The overall increase in the black sector is attributed to expectations of strong fiscal stimulus policies following the Ministry of Finance's press conference on October 12[3] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Insights - The Ministry of Finance announced a series of targeted incremental policy measures to stabilize growth, expand domestic demand, and mitigate risks, including increased debt quotas for local governments to alleviate hidden debt risks[4] - Special government bonds will be issued to support state-owned banks in replenishing core tier one capital, enhancing their risk resistance and credit issuance capabilities[4] Group 3: Industry Impact - The fiscal policies are expected to boost market sentiment in the short term and support the black sector's performance, particularly in real estate and infrastructure[5] - In the real estate sector, measures to stabilize prices and improve demand are anticipated to enhance cash flow for property companies, which may lead to increased steel demand[5] Group 4: Price Predictions - Short-term predictions for steel and iron ore suggest a bullish trend, with rebar support at 3320 and resistance at 3780, while iron ore is expected to fluctuate between 700 and 845[6] - Coking coal and coke are projected to maintain strong support levels at 1400 and 2050, respectively, with potential for further upward movement due to high demand for iron and steel[6]