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西南总量研究：财政加力提效，市场上行趋势不变
Southwest Securities·2024-10-13 08:01

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The Ministry of Finance plans to increase fiscal policy counter-cyclical adjustments, with a focus on debt reduction and stable growth[1] - A total of CNY 1.2 trillion will be allocated in 2024 to support local governments in resolving debt risks and settling overdue payments[1] - As of September 2023, the total proposed issuance of bonds is approximately CNY 113.286 billion, indicating a potential increase in debt limits to alleviate local government debt issues[1] Group 2: Banking Sector Support - Special government bonds will be issued to support state-owned commercial banks in replenishing their core Tier 1 capital, enhancing their risk resistance and credit issuance capabilities[2] - The net interest margin for commercial banks has dropped to 1.54%, with large banks at 1.46%, indicating significant pressure on bank profitability[2] Group 3: Real Estate Market Stabilization - Fiscal measures will include allowing special bonds for land reserves and purchasing existing residential properties for affordable housing, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market[2] - In August 2023, new residential and second-hand housing prices in 70 major cities fell by 5.7% and 8.6%, respectively, highlighting the ongoing pressure in the real estate sector[2] Group 4: Consumer Support Initiatives - The government has initiated one-time living subsidies for low-income groups and plans to enhance support for students, aiming to boost overall consumption capacity[3] - By 2024, the number of national scholarships will double, and scholarship standards will be raised, targeting high marginal propensity to consume groups[3] Group 5: Fiscal Policy Outlook - The central government's leverage ratio is approximately 24.6%, and local governments at 33.2%, indicating room for policy expansion compared to developed countries[3] - Expectations for increased fiscal deficits and special long-term bonds are anticipated to be discussed in the upcoming National People's Congress meeting in late October 2023[3]