煤炭行业周报：财政逆周期调节力度或超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, consistent with the previous rating [8]. Core Insights - The coal sector is currently focused on two main investment themes: "grasping cyclical elasticity," particularly in the coking coal segment linked to real estate and infrastructure, and "focusing on core index stocks," with a positive outlook on key index constituents [9]. - The valuation of the coal sector is undergoing a transformation, reflecting profound changes in supply and demand dynamics, gradually becoming more utility-like. This shift is also influenced by a declining risk-free rate, making high-dividend assets more attractive to investors [10]. - The report highlights the potential for fiscal counter-cyclical adjustments to exceed expectations, indicating that upcoming policies may provide significant support for the sector [10]. Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Data Tracking - As of October 11, 2024, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Huanghua Port is 867 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton (-1.1%) from the previous week [12]. - The report anticipates that the current price drop during the off-season will be less severe than market expectations, with a potential bottom around 830-840 CNY/ton [10]. - Inventory levels at Qinhuangdao Port decreased to 5.14 million tons, down 4.6% from the previous week [26]. Coking Coal Data Tracking - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port increased to 2010 CNY/ton, up 140 CNY/ton (7.5%) from the previous week [37]. - Domestic coking coal prices are rising while overseas prices are falling, with Australian coking coal prices at 222 USD/ton, up 18 USD/ton (8.8%) [44]. - The report notes that the worst period for raw material prices has likely passed, with steel production recovering [10]. Long-term Contract Prices - The annual long-term contract price for Q5500 thermal coal at northern ports is 699 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.3% increase from the previous month [32]. - The long-term contract price for coking coal remains stable, with the Shanxi coking coal index holding at 1363 points [63]. Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the broader market, with a 1.97% increase compared to a 0.60% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [77]. - Key stocks such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are recommended for their high profitability and stability [10].