基础材料／能源行业专题研究：弱势供需下，原油亟待再平衡

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both the Basic Chemicals and Oil & Gas sectors [1]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant decline in oil prices, with WTI and Brent futures dropping by 12.2% and 11.6% respectively since early July 2024, indicating a need for rebalancing in the oil market [4][12]. - It emphasizes that China's oil demand growth is expected to slow down significantly in 2024, with an increase of only 0.1 million barrels per day compared to 1.4 million barrels per day in 2023 [5]. - The report suggests that the supply side, particularly OPEC+, may struggle to maintain voluntary production cuts due to financial pressures, leading to a potential oversupply in the market [6][12]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Trends - Since Q3 2024, international oil prices have been fluctuating downwards, with Brent futures settling below $70 per barrel in September 2024 [12]. - The report notes that the traditional travel season in the Northern Hemisphere is nearing its end, contributing to the decline in demand [12]. Demand Dynamics - China's oil demand is projected to remain flat or slightly decline in the latter half of 2024 and early 2025 due to increased electric vehicle penetration and a shift from diesel to natural gas in heavy-duty trucks [5][12]. - The report also mentions that while the U.S. experienced good gasoline demand during its travel season, this is expected to taper off as the season ends [5]. Supply Considerations - OPEC+ has announced a gradual cancellation of its additional voluntary production cuts, which may lead to increased supply in the market [6][12]. - The report indicates that non-OPEC+ countries, particularly in South America, are expected to contribute significantly to production increases, with Brazil and Guyana showing substantial growth potential [6][12]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several stocks, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) with a target price of 40.32, China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with a target price of 31.54, and others like Senyuan and Sailun Tire, all rated as "Buy" [3].