10.12财政部发布会解读|国君联评

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The government aims to achieve fiscal balance and complete the annual budget through comprehensive measures[1] - Increased debt issuance will support local governments in promoting development[1] - Fiscal tools will be utilized to stabilize the real estate market and support consumer demand[1] Group 2: Market Strategy - The shift in economic policy is expected to enhance market risk appetite, despite weak economic data[1] - The stock market rally is driven by declining risk-free interest rates and improved investor sentiment[1] - Focus on sectors with growth potential and quality, particularly state-owned enterprises benefiting from increased deficit ratios[1] Group 3: Sector-Specific Recommendations - The construction sector is expected to benefit from improved cash flow and fiscal support, with a focus on high-dividend, low-PB state-owned enterprises[2] - The steel industry is anticipated to see demand recovery as real estate sales stabilize, with a focus on leading companies[2] - The coal sector is projected to experience price elasticity due to limited supply and recovering economic momentum[2] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Emphasis on engineering machinery driven by fiscal spending, with a positive outlook for domestic demand[3] - Recommendations for the chemical sector focus on resilient companies with long-term growth potential[4] - The aviation and oil transportation sectors are suggested for reverse positioning due to expected recovery in supply-demand dynamics[3]