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CPI、PPI点评（2024.9）：核心CPI降温骤然加速，拐点何时到来？
Huajin Securities·2024-10-13 09:02

Inflation Trends - In September, the overall CPI decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 0.4%, while the core CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.1%, marking a three-month decline and reaching the lowest level since March 2021[1] - The core CPI's rapid decline is attributed to insufficient consumer spending, with industrial consumer goods prices being affected by low oil prices[1] - Food CPI increased by 0.8% month-on-month, with a year-on-year rise of 3.3%, driven by seasonal factors as fresh produce prices returned to normal[1] PPI Analysis - The PPI's year-on-year decline deepened to -2.8%, a new low for the year, primarily due to weak investment demand amid ongoing real estate adjustments and local debt resolution efforts[1] - Coal and metal prices fell, with coal mining and black metal prices decreasing by 1.3% and 3.3% month-on-month, respectively[1] - International oil prices continued to decline, contributing to a significant year-on-year drop of 10.0% in oil and gas extraction prices[1] Consumer Behavior Insights - Core CPI's drop to a 43-month low reflects weak consumer demand, with government subsidies having limited impact on boosting consumption[1] - Despite various local measures to stimulate consumption, the effects have yet to materialize significantly, with consumer goods CPI falling by 0.2 percentage points to 0.5%[1] - Service CPI also declined by 0.3 percentage points to 0.2%, indicating a shift from rapid growth to stable growth in service consumption[1] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a potential turning point for CPI and PPI around mid-2025, driven by a combination of monetary and fiscal policy adjustments aimed at stabilizing growth and improving consumer demand[1] - The new monetary and fiscal policies emphasize debt resolution and structural optimization, with a focus on supporting liquidity and reducing debt costs for households and businesses[1] - Risks include the possibility of slower-than-expected recovery in consumer demand and investment[1]