宏观研究报告：期待总量政策更积极

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The core of fiscal policy is the balance between funds and projects, which is a stronger constraint than the deficit ratio[3] - Current infrastructure investment shows an 8% growth rate, indicating that past fiscal efforts have been significant[3] - The sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 29% year-on-year in early October 2024, showing no significant improvement compared to previous months[9] Group 2: Policy and Market Reactions - The recent fiscal meeting indicated a clear benefit for urban investment bonds, with potential for large-scale debt issuance to alleviate hidden debts[7] - The adjustment of existing mortgage rates, with first and second home loan rates unified at LPR minus 30 basis points, aims to reduce banks' bad debt pressure[12] - The bond market has seen continuous growth, with the negative impact from stock market fluctuations on interest rate bonds coming to an end[15] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to focus on long-term configurations for interest rate bonds, as a bear market has not yet officially begun[20] - Urban investment bonds can be explored within risk control limits, given the clear policy support[20] - The real estate market requires more aggressive policies to stimulate improvement[20]