策略周观点：牛初为何容易震荡？

Core Viewpoints - Historical patterns in bull and bear markets show similarities in investor perception changes and valuation cycles, but each bull market requires new industrial logic and valuation methods [5][6] - Current market optimism is driven by valuation recovery and policy changes, indicating the start of a new bull market cycle, although consensus on new bull market logic is still forming [5][6] - Initial phases of bull markets often see leading sectors being traditional ones, with subsequent periods experiencing performance pressure due to valuation and earnings alignment [5][6] Market Dynamics - The market is currently in the initial phase of a bull market, characterized by a rapid recovery from previous declines followed by a period of consolidation [5][6] - Historical examples illustrate that after initial rapid gains, markets typically enter a consolidation phase lasting from six months to a year before entering a sustained upward trend [5][6] - The transition from old to new sectors during bull markets is crucial, with different capital inflow mechanisms observed in each cycle [5][6] Investment Strategy - The current market is expected to experience a quarter-level consolidation phase, with adjustments likely to be limited in scope [12] - Key focus areas during this period include the effectiveness of policy implementations and the behavior of previously trapped funds from the bear market [12] - Suggested investment allocation prioritizes upstream cyclical sectors, overseas opportunities, and growth stocks in media and consumer electronics, while also considering financial and real estate sectors [11][12]