Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [3][4]. Core Views - The report anticipates an improvement in thermal power generation and profitability in Q3 2024, with a stable coal price environment supporting this trend [6][17]. - Water power growth is expected to stabilize, while the performance of new energy operators will show divergence, and nuclear power remains generally stable [6][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Insights from Last Week - The report highlights the consensus and divergence regarding the peak summer electricity demand, with expectations of improved thermal power utilization rates in Q3 2024 [6][17]. - The report notes that the coal prices have remained relatively stable, with the average price of Qinhuangdao Shanxi Q5500 thermal coal at 848 CNY/ton, showing minimal fluctuation [6][17]. 2. Market Review - The report indicates that the electricity sector has faced declines, with water power down by 3.65%, thermal power down by 5.27%, and new energy sectors also experiencing declines [21][24]. - The report provides insights into individual stock performances, with Zhaoxin Co. leading gains at +14.98% [27]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - The report notes a decrease in domestic port coal prices, with the Qinhuangdao Shanxi Q5500 thermal coal price at 850 CNY/ton, down 2.0% week-on-week [33][36]. - The report also highlights the increase in electricity prices in Guangdong, with the average transaction price reaching 0.352 CNY/kWh, up 22.3% week-on-week [38]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends selecting high-quality stocks in various segments: for thermal power, it suggests Guodian Power, Sheneng Co., and Huadian International; for water power, it recommends Yangtze Power and Chuanwei Energy; for nuclear power, it suggests China General Nuclear Power and China Nuclear Power; and for new energy, it recommends Yunnan Energy Investment [18][20].
公用事业行业周报:业绩前瞻:迎峰度夏的共识与分歧
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-13 09:36