钢铁行业周报：利好政策提振需求预期

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Overweight" [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is currently at a bottom phase, with expectations for demand improvement and supply restructuring, leading to enhanced competitive advantages for industry leaders [2]. - Recent favorable policies have boosted demand expectations, and mergers and acquisitions may accelerate [2]. - The overall market sentiment is positive due to government support for local debt risk resolution and stabilization of the real estate market, which is expected to gradually eliminate negative impacts on steel demand [2][6]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - The apparent consumption of five major steel products reached 8.9283 million tons, an increase of 10.72% week-on-week; production was 8.6382 million tons, up 1.20% week-on-week; total inventory decreased to 13.101 million tons, down 2.16% week-on-week, maintaining the lowest level for the same period since 2015 [2][15][22]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 80.79%, up 1.22% week-on-week, while the capacity utilization rate was 87.51%, an increase of 1.9% [19]. Price Trends - Last week, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai decreased by 20 CNY/ton to 3660 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.54%; hot-rolled coil prices fell by 70 CNY/ton to 3680 CNY/ton, a drop of 1.87% [6][26]. - The average transaction volume of construction materials decreased by 6.38% week-on-week [15]. Raw Material Prices - Iron ore spot prices fell by 26 CNY/ton to 781.00 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3.22%; the main iron ore futures price dropped by 32.50 CNY/ton to 789.00 CNY/ton, down 3.96% [28]. - Coking coal prices rose by 100 CNY/ton to 1750 CNY/ton, while futures prices decreased by 62 CNY/ton to 1484 CNY/ton, down 4.01% [28]. Profitability and Industry Outlook - The profitability of steel companies has significantly improved, with the profit rate for 247 steel companies reaching 71.43%, an increase of 33.77 percentage points week-on-week [19]. - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating, highlighting that many steel companies have a price-to-book (PB) ratio below 1, with some below 0.5, indicating potential for valuation recovery [2].