化妆品双周报：双十一大促即将开始，关注旺季催化

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cosmetics industry, consistent with the previous rating [2][3]. Core Insights - The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to catalyze growth in the cosmetics sector, with extended promotional periods and increased subsidies likely to boost GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) [2][3]. - Strong brand momentum is anticipated to drive better performance for leading brands, with local beauty groups expected to enhance market share through product innovation and channel expansion [3][7]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. Brands with strong momentum and driven by key products: Proya, Giant Bio, and Jinbo Bio [3][7]. 2. Affordable consumer brands with expanding channels: Runben and Shangmei [3][7]. 3. Brands expected to reach a turning point: Betaini, Marubi, Huaxi Bio, Shanghai Jahwa, Furuida, Dengkang Oral, Shuiyang, Fulejia, and Meili Tianyuan [3][7]. 4. Companies focusing on capacity release and overseas expansion: Jiabiou [3][7]. Industry Update - The Double Eleven shopping festival is approaching, with expectations for strong product performance from leading brands. Local beauty groups are likely to continue gaining market share through innovative products and effective channel strategies [3][7]. - The report forecasts that leading companies in the sector may achieve a year-on-year growth rate of 20-30%, with some potentially exceeding 30% growth [3][7]. Double Eleven Shopping Festival Insights - The 2024 Double Eleven event will start earlier than in 2023, with promotional periods extended and platforms expected to increase subsidies for merchants and consumers [4][8]. - Tmall will invest an additional 30 billion yuan in consumer coupons and red packets to support GMV growth [4][8]. Key Company Updates and Profit Forecasts - Huaxi Bio is launching new products aimed at neck and lip anti-aging treatments, with significant growth expected in the coming years [16]. - Profit forecasts for key companies include: - Betaini: 2024E EPS of 2.49 yuan, with a 3-year CAGR of 25% [18]. - Proya: 2024E EPS of 3.92 yuan, with a 3-year CAGR of 24% [18]. - Shanghai Jahwa: 2024E EPS of 0.68 yuan, with a 3-year CAGR of 13% [18]. - Huaxi Bio: 2024E EPS of 1.51 yuan, with a 3-year CAGR of 30% [18].