财政增量政策预期上升，强政府基建板块或得到修复

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [6] Core Insights - The expectation for fiscal incremental policies is rising, which may lead to a recovery in the government infrastructure sector [8] - Significant increases in new and second-hand housing transactions were observed, with new housing transactions in 30 major cities up by 34% week-on-week and second-hand housing transactions in 15 cities up by 165% week-on-week [3][37] - Cement prices have seen a substantial increase of 4.2% nationwide, driven by seasonal demand and improved construction activity [4][40] Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The Ministry of Finance announced measures to enhance counter-cyclical fiscal policy, including a significant increase in debt limits to alleviate local government debt pressures [8] - This policy shift is expected to improve the accounts receivable situation for companies involved in infrastructure projects [9] Housing Market Trends - In the 41st week of the year, new housing transaction area reached 180.39 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 30% but a week-on-week increase of 29% [3] - Second-hand housing transactions in key monitored cities showed a year-on-year decrease of 9% but a week-on-week increase of 165% [3] Cement and Construction Materials - Cement prices have increased significantly, particularly in East, Central, and Southwest regions, with price hikes ranging from 10 to 100 yuan per ton [4][40] - The national average price for cement is reported at 3665.25 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.56% [7] - The demand for cement is expected to continue rising due to the commencement of key construction projects post-holiday [4][40] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies benefiting from fiscal policy adjustments include China Metallurgical Group, China State Construction, and others with high government client ratios [9] - Key sectors expected to benefit from national-level projects include water conservancy and nuclear power, with recommendations for companies like China State Construction and China Power Construction [9] - Companies in the construction materials sector, such as Conch Cement and North New Materials, are highlighted for their potential recovery due to undervaluation [10]