基础材料行业周报(第四十一周)：国内政策发力延续，有色板块或震荡

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector and basic metals and processing [1][2]. Core Views - Domestic policy support continues to strengthen, leading to a generally positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector. The market anticipates further policy measures aimed at local debt management and capital injection into banks, which are expected to bolster demand [2][3]. - The report highlights a potential divergence in the performance of basic metals, particularly copper and aluminum, due to high prices suppressing demand. Investors are advised to be cautious regarding the risks associated with high copper prices [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to experience short-term fluctuations at high levels, influenced by changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2][3]. Summary by Sections Basic Metals - Strong policy expectations may lead to a mixed performance in basic metal prices. Copper prices have shown weakness, with a recent price of 77,500 CNY/ton, down 0.16 CNY year-on-year. Supply disruptions in the smelting sector are anticipated to continue, while demand is being affected by high prices [8][9]. - Aluminum prices have slightly increased to 20,730 CNY/ton, with a decrease in inventory levels. The report suggests that aluminum prices may remain strong due to steady demand from downstream industries [8][9]. - Zinc prices have risen to 25,560 CNY/ton, with expectations of continued demand recovery as prices stabilize [8][9]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, with recent prices at 2,657.03 USD/oz. The market's focus is shifting towards inflation concerns in the U.S., which may influence gold's sensitivity to monetary policy changes [9][10]. - Silver prices have shown a slight decline, reflecting market adjustments to changing economic indicators [9][10]. Rare Earths - The rare earth market is experiencing upward price trends, with neodymium oxide prices reaching 431,400 CNY/ton. The demand remains stable, supported by favorable policies and a recovering export market [10][11]. Lithium and Cobalt - Lithium carbonate prices have recently increased to 76,480 CNY/ton, but the long-term outlook remains weak due to oversupply conditions. The report indicates that demand is expected to stabilize, but supply may rebound in the near future [11][12]. - Cobalt prices are under pressure due to a supply-demand imbalance, with current market conditions favoring buyers [11][12].