Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the paper and light industry in China [5] Core Insights - The light manufacturing industry index fell by 7.01%, underperforming the market by 3.75 percentage points, while the paper sub-sector dropped by 5.58%, underperforming the market by 2.33 percentage points [10] - In August, the inventory of finished products in the mechanism paper and paperboard sector increased by 2.7% month-on-month [2][33] Summary by Sections Market Review - The light manufacturing industry index decreased by 7.01%, while the paper sub-sector fell by 5.58%, ranking 23rd among 28 primary industries [10] - The four major sub-sectors of light manufacturing, ranked by decline, are paper, packaging and printing, cultural products, and furniture, with declines of 5.58%, 6.68%, 7.01%, and 8.10% respectively [10] Industry Chain Data Tracking - Domestic waste prices fell by 10 CNY/ton, while foreign waste prices remained stable [2][16] - The price of Chilean hardwood pulp remained stable, with spot prices showing divergence; dissolving pulp prices decreased by 100 CNY/ton [2][16] - In August, the production of mechanism paper and paperboard reached 13.75 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [33] - The inventory of finished products in the mechanism paper and paperboard manufacturing sector increased by 2.7% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 11.5% [33] Profitability Levels - The profitability of cultural paper and white cardboard decreased, while the profitability of coated paper and boxboard showed divergence [26] - The profitability of double-sided paper decreased by 23-36 CNY/ton, while small paper companies saw a slight increase in coated paper profitability [26][28] - The profitability of white cardboard decreased by 22-30 CNY/ton, and the profitability of waste paper products varied, with low-grade boxboard increasing by 14 CNY/ton and high-grade boxboard decreasing by 1 CNY/ton [26][28] Investment Recommendations - With the recent large-scale production of new capacities from Suzano Cerrado and Liansheng commodity pulp, the report suggests that the decline in foreign pulp prices will help leading paper companies gradually relieve cost pressures [3] - The report recommends investing in leading companies such as Sun Paper (002078, Buy), Huawang Technology (605377, Buy), Xianhe Co., Ltd. (603733, Buy), and Wuzhou Special Paper (605007, Hold) [3]
造纸产业链数据每周速递:8月机制纸及纸板产成品库存环比增长2.7%
Orient Securities·2024-10-13 10:03