牛初为何容易震荡？

Market Trends - The current market is in the early stages of a bull market, typically characterized by a rapid initial rise followed by a period of consolidation lasting about 6 months to 1 year[5]. - Historical patterns show that after the initial rise, the market often enters a phase of adjustment before a sustained upward trend can begin, which may last 1-2 years[5]. Investor Behavior - Investors tend to initially focus on old sectors during the first wave of a bull market, such as banks in December 2012 and financial cycles in Q3-Q4 2014, before new industry logic emerges[5]. - The transition from old to new sectors during the bull market is crucial, as it often leads to significant market fluctuations[5]. Valuation and Performance - As of October 8, 2024, the overall market valuation has rebounded from historical lows to average levels, indicating that further price increases will require strong earnings growth[9]. - The Shanghai Composite Index's price-to-book ratio has returned to historical average levels, suggesting that the market is currently fairly valued[9]. Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected downturns in the real estate market and volatility in the U.S. stock market, which could impact investor sentiment and market stability[5]. - The market's ability to sustain its upward trajectory will depend on the successful implementation of fiscal policies and the overall economic environment[12]. Fund Flows - Recent data indicates a significant net inflow of capital into the Hong Kong stock market, totaling approximately 275.63 billion CNY, reflecting increased investor interest[12]. - The average equity fund position has seen a decrease, while mixed-asset funds have increased their positions, indicating a shift in investment strategy[12].