国君交运周观察：Q3业绩预期充分，Q4建议逆向布局

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both the aviation and oil transportation sectors [1][3]. Core Views - The aviation sector is expected to see a year-on-year decline in profitability for Q3 2024, but market expectations are already priced in. Demand remains resilient, and supply-demand dynamics are anticipated to continue recovering. The oil transportation sector is also projected to experience a year-on-year decline in VLCC profitability, while MR profitability is expected to remain stable. The report suggests a cautious approach to the peak season and recommends a contrarian strategy for oil transportation [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Aviation Sector - Post-holiday demand is gradually recovering, with airlines prioritizing passenger load factors despite low ticket prices. The report suggests a contrarian strategy for the off-peak season, with a focus on the recovery of international flight rights by the end of October. The industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in supply-demand dynamics from 2023 to 2024, with profitability anticipated to rise as supply-demand balances out. The report highlights the potential for optimistic expectations driven by falling oil prices [4][7]. Oil Transportation Sector - The report advises a cautious approach to peak season speculation and suggests a contrarian strategy for oil transportation. Recent fluctuations in oil prices and geopolitical tensions have impacted freight rates, with VLCC TCE rates fluctuating around $33,000 during the National Day holiday. The report notes that traditional peak season rates are expected to rise significantly, but the timing and extent of this increase remain uncertain. It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the timing for contrarian investments in the oil transportation sector [4][9]. Q3 2024 Performance Outlook - The report forecasts that the aviation sector will see a historical high in profitability for Q3 2023, but a decline is expected for Q3 2024 due to cautious revenue management strategies by airlines. The oil transportation sector is also expected to see a decline in VLCC profitability, while MR profitability is projected to remain stable. The report suggests that market expectations for these declines are already well established [4][12]. Strategy Recommendations - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both aviation and oil transportation sectors, recommending high dividend yield stocks. It emphasizes the resilience of aviation demand and the ongoing recovery of supply-demand dynamics. For oil transportation, it highlights the impact of trade restructuring and refinery relocations on the sector's profitability, suggesting a contrarian approach to capitalize on potential future gains [4][18].