机械行业周报：9月挖机取得内销高增，国家逆周期调节力度有望加大

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the machinery equipment industry in China [5] Core Insights - The CJ Machinery Equipment Index fell by 4.6% during the week of October 8-11, 2024, with the top-performing sectors being railway equipment, oil and gas equipment, oil and gas services III, shipbuilding, and internal combustion engines, which experienced fluctuations of -1.9%, -2.0%, -2.2%, -2.7%, and -3.1% respectively [2][9] - The median PE (TTM) for the machinery sector reached 33x, with agricultural machinery having the highest valuation at 79x and engineering machinery the lowest at 16x. Historical data indicates that the machinery sector's PE is at the 29th percentile over the past 10 years [11][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The machinery sector's performance for the year 2024 shows a decline of 3.8% year-to-date, with the best-performing sectors being non-bank financials, banks, home appliances, communication, and public utilities, which increased by 28.7%, 26.9%, 23.9%, 16.0%, and 9.5% respectively [9] Sales and Demand - In September 2024, excavator sales reached 15,831 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, with domestic sales of 7,610 units growing by 21.5%. The report indicates strong domestic demand, supported by local policies promoting equipment upgrades [3][4] Policy Support - The Chinese government is expected to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments, with a focus on stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and mitigating risks. Key measures include increasing debt limits for local governments and issuing special government bonds to support state-owned banks [2][3]