铝行业周报：政策持续加码，铝价高位，关注板块投资机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum industry is experiencing a combination of supportive policies and improving demand, leading to a continuation of inventory reduction and price increases [3][14]. - Short-term market sentiment is improving due to ongoing domestic policy support, while aluminum prices remain high due to limited inventory accumulation during the holiday period [14]. - Long-term, the aluminum industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [14]. Summary by Sections Macro Environment - The macro environment remains optimistic, with signs of improvement in real estate sales and the implementation of a package of incremental policies by the National Development and Reform Commission [8]. Supply and Demand - Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to increase to 43.63 million tons by the end of October, with daily production potentially exceeding 120,000 tons [9]. - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum has risen to approximately 18,076 yuan/ton, reflecting a 220 yuan/ton increase from the end of September [9]. - The market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with domestic aluminum ingot arrivals falling short of expectations [9]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the aluminum sector include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, China Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., and Yunnan Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024E are as follows: China Hongqiao (2.12 yuan), Tianshan Aluminum (0.91 yuan), China Aluminum (0.77 yuan), Shenhuo Co. (2.15 yuan), and Yunnan Aluminum (1.41 yuan) [6]. Price Trends - As of October 11, the average price of electrolytic aluminum in Shanghai is 20,825 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.8% increase week-on-week and a 9.5% increase year-on-year [22]. - The average price of alumina has risen to 4,241 yuan/ton, a 3.6% increase from the previous week and a 43.0% increase year-on-year [32]. Production and Operating Rates - The operating rate for aluminum profiles is reported at 52.5%, down 1 percentage point week-on-week and down 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [52]. - The operating rate for aluminum wire and cable is 72.0%, showing a 1 percentage point increase week-on-week and a 4.0 percentage point increase year-on-year [52].