SUNNY OPTICAL(02382) 高盛证券·2024-10-13 16:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sunny Optical is maintained at Neutral with a 12-month target price of HK$63.50, based on a P/E multiple of 23.3x for 2025E [6][9]. Core Insights - Sunny Optical's September shipments showed a year-on-year increase of 6% for handset lenses, while camera module shipments decreased by 30% year-on-year. Vehicle lens shipments increased by 13% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is expected to improve its gross margin (GM) to 17.5% in the second half of 2024, up from 14.1% in the second half of 2023 and 17.2% in the first half of 2024, driven by product mix upgrades towards mid and high-end smartphone projects [1][4]. - The overall shipment performance for the first nine months of 2024 is largely in line with estimates, with handset lens shipments tracking 77% of the 2024 estimates, vehicle lens at 78%, and camera modules at 74% [2][4]. Shipment Performance Summary - Handset lens shipments in September were 119 million units, a decrease of 4% month-on-month but an increase of 6% year-on-year, leading to a total of 993 million units for the first nine months of 2024, representing a 20% year-on-year growth [2][4]. - Camera module shipments were 37 million units in September, down 30% year-on-year, with a total of 409 million units for the first nine months of 2024, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [4]. - Vehicle lens shipments reached 9 million units in September, up 13% year-on-year, contributing to a total of 80 million units for the first nine months of 2024 [2][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Sunny Optical are estimated to reach RMB 37.63 billion in 2024, with an expected increase to RMB 45.36 billion in 2025 and RMB 53.74 billion in 2026 [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 2.08 in 2024, increasing to RMB 2.56 in 2025 and RMB 3.24 in 2026 [9].