食品饮料行业周报：财政政策发力，三季报陆续开启

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is maintained as "Buy" for key stocks such as Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH), Wuliangye (000858.SZ), and Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) with ratings of A and B respectively [1][6]. Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage industry experienced a significant decline of 7.47% last week, ranking 26th among 31 sub-industries, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.91 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 4.05 percentage points [6][9]. - The report anticipates that the food and beverage market will undergo three phases: policy expectations, valuation enhancement upon policy implementation, and performance realization [11][12]. - The report highlights a recovery sequence based on Maslow's hierarchy of needs, indicating that essential goods will recover faster than discretionary items, with the rebound elasticity increasing from basic necessities to high-end products [11][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a notable decline, with non-white liquor dropping the most at 8.67%, while soft drinks were the only category to see a slight increase of 0.17% [6][7]. - The report details the performance of individual stocks, with West Region Livestock (+10.28%) and Shede Liquor (+9.42%) leading the gains, while companies like Huangtai Liquor (-23.02%) faced significant losses [8][9]. Major Events - On October 12, the State Council announced a series of targeted fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand, which are expected to impact the food and beverage sector positively [9][10]. - The report also notes the upcoming third-quarter earnings announcements, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Three Squirrels expected to show substantial revenue growth [10][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a proactive investment approach, focusing on cyclical sectors such as white liquor and the restaurant industry, which are expected to benefit from economic recovery [14][15]. - Short-term targets include mid-range white liquor and pre-mixed drinks, while long-term targets focus on high-end liquor and health products [14][15]. Company Announcements - Dongpeng Beverage is projected to achieve a revenue of 12.4-12.72 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.50%-47.21% [10][15]. - Three Squirrels anticipates a net profit increase of 200.45%-224.81% in Q3 2024, driven by structural changes in its business model [10][15].