非银金融：2024年四季度策略-站在当前时点，如何看待券商股

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1]. Core Insights - The A-share market has experienced a structural trend in 2024, with large-cap indices significantly outperforming small-cap indices. As of September 30, the non-bank (Shenwan) index has risen by 29.52%, ranking first among 31 Shenwan primary industries. The broker II index has increased by 24.24%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 7.14 percentage points and the Shanghai Composite Index by 12.08 percentage points [1][7][10]. - The report highlights the ongoing pressure on brokerage firms' light asset businesses, including wealth management, asset management, and investment banking, due to market volatility. The wealth management business has been particularly affected, leading to a decline in brokerage income [1][4][17]. - Regulatory support is expected to accelerate the merger and acquisition process among brokerages, leading to increased industry concentration. The report suggests focusing on brokerages with merger and acquisition opportunities and those that are undervalued and likely to benefit from valuation recovery [4][30]. Summary by Sections Market Performance and Earnings - The A-share market has shown a mixed performance, with a notable recovery in trading volume following policy support. However, the first half of 2024 saw a decline in net profits for most brokerages, with a total revenue of 236.5 billion yuan, down 12.63%, and a net profit of 64 billion yuan, down 22.17% [12][14]. - The report indicates that the top five brokerages accounted for an increased share of total net profits, reflecting a slight consolidation in the industry [14][28]. Policy Support for Capital Market Development - The new "National Nine Articles" policy framework aims to guide the industry towards serving the real economy and enhancing its intermediary role in the capital market. This includes a focus on improving service quality and risk management capabilities [30][34]. - Recent policies have emphasized the importance of mergers and acquisitions, with the government encouraging brokerages to leverage these opportunities for growth and diversification [4][34]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on brokerages with potential merger and acquisition opportunities, particularly larger firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities, as well as mid-sized firms with integration expectations [4][28]. - The brokerage sector is currently at a historical low in terms of price-to-book (PB) ratio, suggesting potential for valuation recovery as market conditions improve [28][30]. Business Segment Analysis - The brokerage industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with a shift towards public fund management and a reduction in private fund products. This transition is crucial for enhancing competitiveness and achieving sustainable growth [22][27]. - The report notes that self-operated businesses remain a key revenue source for brokerages, despite overall declines in performance due to high base effects from the previous year [27][28].