煤炭行业定期报告：冬储将起动力煤无忧，焦煤反弹仍在持续

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Outperform" relative to the market [3] Core Views - Short-term stabilization and rebound in thermal coal prices are expected, with the price center in Q4 likely to be higher than in Q3. Coking coal prices also have room for rebound, influenced by policy changes [2][3] - The coal sector is viewed positively for investment, as it is believed to be in a "golden era" due to energy transformation demands and strict capacity controls under carbon neutrality policies [2][3] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - As of October 11, 2024, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 852 CNY/ton, down 15 CNY/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 1.73%. The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 82.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points [2][19] - Seasonal declines in power plant daily consumption are noted, but winter storage demand is gradually being released, suggesting potential price stabilization and rebound for thermal coal [2][19] - Methanol and urea production rates are at historically high levels, with methanol at 89.4% and urea at 86.3% as of early October [2][19] Coking Coal - As of October 11, 2024, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 2010 CNY/ton, stable week-on-week. The macroeconomic policy improvements are expected to benefit the coal and coke industry chain [2][58] - Coking coal prices are expected to have upward potential compared to the coking steel segment, with coking plant operating rates rebounding to 78.2%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points [2][58] Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the coal sector are suggested based on several criteria: 1. Companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [2] 2. Companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration models, such as Xinji Energy and Huaihe Energy [2] 3. Companies with production growth potential and benefiting from coal price elasticity, such as Shanxi Coal International and Yanzhou Coal Mining [2] 4. Companies with globally scarce resources benefiting from long-term supply tightness, such as Huaibei Mining and Pingmei Shenma Group [2]