中国通胀系列六：价已缩，策已落，关注未来价格修复

Inflation Data Summary - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% year-on-year, down from 0.6% in August[1] - The Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Food prices saw a significant increase, with fresh vegetable prices up 22.9% and pork prices up 16.2% year-on-year, while non-food prices experienced a decline of 0.2%[2][18] Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI fell by 2.8% year-on-year in September, worsening from a 1.8% decline in August, indicating increased pressure from upstream to downstream demand[3][24] - Production materials saw a decrease of 3.3% year-on-year, contributing to the overall PPI decline, while living materials dropped by 1.3%[14][24] - The PPI-CPI gap widened to 3.2%, reflecting a significant disparity between consumer prices and producer prices[3] Market Outlook and Risks - The expectation of fiscal policy implementation is anticipated to alleviate market pessimism and enhance price elasticity[3] - The ongoing economic data volatility poses risks, particularly with potential rapid price increases in upstream markets[3] - The report highlights the need for monitoring external market conditions, particularly interest rate changes that could affect liquidity[3]