国内观察：2024年9月通胀数据：通胀已至低点，一揽子政策有望推动价格水平回升

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In September 2024, the CPI year-on-year increased by 0.4%, down from 0.6% in August, while the month-on-month change was 0.0%, compared to 0.4% previously[3] - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.8%, a decline from the previous value of -1.8%, with a month-on-month change of -0.6%, slightly better than -0.7% in August[3] - The low CPI and PPI figures do not reflect the positive expectations following the government meetings in late September, indicating potential recovery in inflation levels[3] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - Seasonal factors contributed to a weaker CPI performance, with food item support diminishing and non-food items remaining below seasonal expectations[3] - Fresh vegetables and fruits saw month-on-month increases of 4.3% and 2.1%, respectively, but these figures were still above the five-year average, indicating a temporary weather impact[3] - Alcohol prices continued to decline, with a month-on-month drop of 0.9%, leading to a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, nearing historical lows[3] Group 3: Price Trends and Risks - Service prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month in September, influenced by seasonal declines in travel-related costs post-summer[3] - The PPI decline was driven by both tailing factors and new price increases, with the former dropping from -0.1% to -0.5% and the latter from -1.7% to -2.3%[4] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation, ongoing real estate downturns, and risks of economic recession in the U.S.[4]