美债利率回升，共和党胜选总统概率有所上升

Economic Indicators - In September, the U.S. CPI and core CPI increased by 0.2% and 0.3% month-on-month, respectively, exceeding expectations[3] - Year-on-year, the CPI rose to 2.4% and core CPI to 3.3%, both higher than anticipated[3] - The initial jobless claims surged to 258,000, surpassing the expected 230,000, likely due to hurricane impacts[2] Monetary Policy - The FOMC minutes revealed internal disagreements regarding a potential 50 basis point rate cut, with some officials favoring a 25 basis point cut instead[4] - Following the inflation data, the market's expectation for rate cuts in 2024 decreased by 11 basis points to 45 basis points[5] Financial Markets - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year and 10-year yields increasing by 2 basis points and 10 basis points to 3.95% and 4.08%, respectively[5] - The U.S. dollar index strengthened by 1.7% to 102.9, while major U.S. stock indices saw a slight increase of 1.1%-1.2%[5] Real Estate Market - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.32%, contributing to a rebound in Redfin home sales, although the overall trend remains downward[2][33] - The median days on market for homes showed an increase, indicating a rise in housing circulation speed[31]