国内观察：2024年10月财政部发布会解读：政策及时雨下不停

Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The recent press conference by the Ministry of Finance emphasized increasing counter-cyclical fiscal policy to promote high-quality economic development, exceeding market expectations[2] - The minister indicated confidence in achieving this year's fiscal budget targets, highlighting "responsibility" and "sufficient resilience" in fiscal measures[2] - A significant increase in local government debt limits is anticipated, with a reference to last year's decision to raise the deficit rate and issue 1 trillion yuan in bonds[3] Group 2: Debt Management and Financial Support - The government plans to implement a one-time large-scale increase in debt limits to support local governments in resolving hidden debt issues, with specific figures expected post the October Standing Committee meeting[3] - Approximately 800 billion yuan in special bonds have been issued this year to address debt risks, with an additional 400 billion yuan allocated from central finances to support local government finances[3] - The issuance of special government bonds is aimed at bolstering state-owned banks' core capital, enhancing their risk resilience amid narrowing net interest margins[3] Group 3: Real Estate and Social Welfare Measures - Policies to stabilize the real estate market include land and property acquisition, optimizing affordable housing projects, and tax incentives to improve cash flow for real estate companies[3] - Increased financial support for students is expected, enhancing assistance for disadvantaged groups, which aligns with the government's focus on improving living standards[3] - The Minister hinted at more fiscal policies in the pipeline, suggesting potential increases in the deficit rate beyond the usual 3% in the upcoming sessions[3] Group 4: Risk Considerations - Risks include the possibility of policy implementation falling short of expectations, continued downturns in the real estate market, and potential economic recession in the U.S.[4]