银行行业跟踪分析：银行投资观察-资产配置的齿轮刚开始转动

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The banking sector has shown resilience, with the overall sector down 0.6% compared to a 4.0% drop in the Wind All A index, ranking third among all industries [2][37] - The performance of state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks varied, with state-owned banks increasing by 0.91% while rural commercial banks decreased by 1.22% [2][37] - The average price of bank convertible bonds fell by 0.13%, underperforming the Zhongzheng convertible bond index by 0.08 percentage points [2][38] - Profit expectations for A-share banks in 2024 show a slight increase in net profit growth rate and revenue growth rate, up by 0.10 percentage points and 0.01 percentage points respectively [2][38] Summary by Sections 1. Current Observation - State-owned banks performed better, with A-shares outperforming H-shares during the observation period from October 8 to October 11, 2024 [37] 2. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the need to view policy changes from both directional and speed perspectives, rather than merely reacting to market fluctuations [2][39] - The recent large-scale debt restructuring will directly benefit smaller banks under debt pressure, potentially lowering interest margins but also alleviating asset quality pressures [2][39] 3. Sector Performance - The banking sector's performance was relatively stable, with a minor decline compared to broader market indices [2][37] 4. Individual Stock Performance - The top-performing A-share banks included Postal Savings Bank (+3.61%), Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank (+3.36%), and China Construction Bank (+2.90%) [2][37] 5. Convertible Bond Performance - The average price of bank convertible bonds decreased, with most individual bonds also showing declines [2][38] 6. Profit Forecast Tracking - The report indicates a consistent upward revision in profit growth expectations for several banks, reflecting a positive outlook for the sector [2][38]