建筑材料行业投资策略周报：财政逆周期发力，看好板块机会

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Hold" with a previous rating of "Hold" [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector is currently facing weak demand from real estate, but expectations are improving. The central government's continued support for the real estate market is expected to stabilize the sector, leading to potential valuation recovery [2] - The industry is anticipated to see a bottoming out as real estate sales improve, with policy support likely to catalyze stabilization. Strong operational resilience is observed in leading companies, particularly in retail materials supported by renovation demand for second-hand and existing homes [2] - The report suggests actively monitoring growth-oriented and high-valuation consumer building materials, cement leaders with price increase catalysts, and opportunities in fiberglass leaders at the bottom of the market [2] Summary by Sections 1. Fiscal Counter-Cyclical Efforts and Sector Opportunities - The report highlights the government's fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing growth, including the use of special bonds to support real estate and improve the consumption environment [16] - Recent data shows a rebound in real estate transactions, with new home sales in 50 cities showing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 28.7% for 2024, but with signs of recovery in the latter part of the year [16][22] 2. Consumer Building Materials - The sector is experiencing weak fundamentals but is expected to improve as policies continue to support the market. Leading companies are showing strong operational resilience [2][12] 3. Cement - Cement demand has increased month-on-month, with significant price hikes in southern regions. As of October 11, 2024, the national average cement price was 402 RMB per ton, up 16.33 RMB from the previous month [2][12] - The report notes that the industry is at a historical valuation low, with companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement being highlighted for their potential [2] 4. Fiberglass and Carbon-Based Composites - Fiberglass prices are stable, with slight improvements in electronic yarn shipments. The average price for 2400tex winding direct yarn was 3665 RMB per ton as of October 11, 2024, showing a 0.14% decrease month-on-month but a 9.56% increase year-on-year [2][12] 5. Glass - The report mentions that the price of float glass is on the rise, with slight increases in photovoltaic glass inventory compared to the pre-holiday period [12]