化工行业周报：2024年10月第2周

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the chemical industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2][20]. Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is currently in a bottoming phase with few sub-sectors showing an upward trend in fundamentals. High oil prices are sustained, prompting a focus on high-dividend stocks such as the "three major oil companies" and the long-term dividend potential of leading chemical enterprises. Defensive allocations are recommended towards the agricultural supply chain, which is more resilient during recessionary periods. Historical data shows that food prices tend to decline less sharply than oil prices during economic downturns, emphasizing the importance of food security in recent years [5][10]. Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Prices - As of October 4, 2024, Brent oil prices increased by 1.3% to $79.04 per barrel. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory rose to 422.7 million barrels, an increase of 5.8 million barrels week-on-week. Gasoline inventory decreased by 6.3 million barrels, while distillate inventory fell by 3.1 million barrels [11][12]. Price Changes - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were R125 (up 13.1%), Succinic Anhydride (up 12.7%), and WTI (up 12.1%). Conversely, the largest declines were seen in Liquid Chlorine (down 121.5%), Phenol (down 10.3%), and Ammonium Chloride (down 6.7%) [3][12]. Price Spread Changes - The top three products with the largest weekly price spread increases were Styrene (up 109.8%), Adipic Acid (up 48.3%), and Succinic Anhydride (up 39.3%). The largest declines were in the Succinic Anhydride BDO spread (down 94.1%), R410A spread (down 83.3%), and Hydrogen Peroxide spread (down 57.1%) [4][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies: - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy): A leading private refining enterprise with significant growth potential due to a joint investment project with Saudi Aramco. - Huamao Technology (603181, Buy): A leader in specialty polyethers, showing resilience against macroeconomic pressures and returning to a growth trajectory. - Jinhui Industrial (002597, Buy): A leader in maltol and sucralose, with products at the bottom of the cycle expected to see marginal improvements. - Salt Lake Potash (000792, Not Rated): A leading domestic potash fertilizer company [5][10].