银行业周报：化债政策超预期，利好银行

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook due to recent financial and fiscal policy measures that exceed expectations [3][10]. Core Insights - Recent financial and fiscal policies are expected to support local debt resolution, stabilize the real estate market, and enhance the asset quality outlook for banks. The anticipated measures include a significant increase in debt limits and the issuance of special government bonds to bolster the core tier one capital of major state-owned banks [3][10]. - The report highlights that while net interest margins may continue to face pressure, the rate of decline is expected to slow compared to previous forecasts. Additionally, the government plans to enhance the capital of six major banks, which will improve their operational stability and dividend sustainability [3][10]. - The report recommends specific banks based on two main strategies: improving risk appetite and debt resolution expectations, with a focus on banks like Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Qilu Bank; and a dividend strategy benefiting from the central bank's SFISF tool, recommending Agricultural Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank of China [3][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The CITIC Bank Index slightly decreased by 0.60%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.65 percentage points. Notable performers included Postal Savings Bank (+3.61%) and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank (+3.36%) [7]. - The Ministry of Finance announced a series of targeted policy measures to support local debt resolution and enhance the capital of major banks, which is expected to improve their credit issuance capabilities and support economic recovery [7][12]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the government's commitment to increasing fiscal policy measures to address economic challenges, including supporting local governments in managing hidden debts and stabilizing the real estate market through various financial instruments [11][12]. - The establishment of the SFISF by the central bank aims to enhance liquidity for financial institutions, allowing them to exchange lower-quality assets for higher-quality, liquid assets, thereby improving their capital acquisition capabilities [10][14]. Company Dynamics - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Merchants Bank, have announced adjustments to their existing mortgage rates, aligning them with the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [16]. - The report includes updates on stock purchases by major shareholders in various banks, indicating ongoing confidence in the banking sector's stability and growth potential [17].