轻工制造行业周观点：政策端持续推动地产止跌回稳，家居板块景气度边际改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the home furnishing sector, with specific recommendations to increase holdings in key companies such as Oppein Home, Kuka Home, and Sun Paper [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization due to favorable policies, which is expected to marginally improve the home furnishing sector's performance [1][15]. - The National Development and Reform Commission's recent announcements indicate a strong commitment to supporting the real estate market, which is anticipated to benefit home furnishing companies [1][15]. - The report notes significant increases in housing transactions during the National Day holiday, with Shenzhen seeing a 664% year-on-year increase in new housing subscriptions [1][15]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Policy Developments: The government is implementing comprehensive measures to stabilize the real estate market, including lowering down payment ratios for housing loans [1][15]. - Market Performance: During the National Day holiday, various cities reported substantial increases in housing transactions, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1][15]. - Investment Recommendations: The report suggests focusing on leading brands in the home furnishing sector, particularly custom furniture companies like Oppein Home and Sofia, as well as soft furniture brands like Kuka Home [1][15]. Paper Industry - Price Trends: The average price of domestic needle pulp is 5775 RMB/ton, showing a slight increase of 0.4% week-on-week, while the average price of broadleaf pulp is 4710 RMB/ton, up 0.2% [3][16]. - Cultural Paper Outlook: The report anticipates a recovery in cultural paper prices in Q4, suggesting a focus on leading companies like Sun Paper [3][16]. Packaging Sector - Market Dynamics: The report recommends attention to high-dividend stocks in the packaging sector, particularly in plastic and metal packaging, as the industry undergoes consolidation [4][17]. - Investment Focus: Companies like Yongxin Co. in plastic packaging and Aorijin in metal packaging are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4][17]. Export Sector - Export Growth: The report notes robust growth in specific export categories, such as mattresses and stainless steel thermal cups, with increases of 11.2% and 22.6% year-on-year, respectively [4][17]. - Investment Strategy: It suggests focusing on companies in the export chain that are positioned to benefit from the recovery in the U.S. real estate market [4][17].