煤炭行业周报：动煤价格小幅震荡，焦煤价格具备向上弹性

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Shaanxi Coal and "Hold" ratings to several other companies including China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Huabei Mining [1][44]. Core Insights - The report highlights that thermal coal prices have shown slight fluctuations, with daily consumption levels better than the same period last year. As of October 12, the Qinhuangdao thermal coal price was 870 RMB/ton, a decrease of 5 RMB/ton from September 30 [2][6]. - Coking coal prices have strengthened, with significant increases noted in various regions. For instance, Shanxi coking coal reached 1950 RMB/ton, up 100 RMB/ton from September 30 [3][20]. - The report anticipates continued improvement in coking coal demand due to fiscal policies and rising steel prices, suggesting that coking coal prices have upward elasticity and potential for further increases [3][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of October 12, the port price for thermal coal was 870 RMB/ton, with a long-term contract price of 699 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 1.4% [2][6]. - The average daily consumption for coastal provinces was 181.0 million tons, an increase of 11.4 million tons week-on-week [9][16]. - The total coal production in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was 27.6 million tons for the week ending October 6, a decrease of 179,000 tons from the previous week [16]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices have increased significantly, with Shanxi coking coal at 1950 RMB/ton, an increase of 100 RMB/ton from the previous report [3][20]. - The coke price index reached 1703 RMB/ton, up 89 RMB/ton from September 30, while the cost index was 1960 RMB/ton, indicating a gap of 257 RMB/ton [24][20]. - The report notes that the demand for coking coal is expected to improve due to rising steel production and supportive fiscal policies [3][43]. 3. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the coal sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with specific recommendations for companies that exhibit stable performance and high return on equity [43][44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with strong fundamentals and attractive valuations in the current market environment [43][44].