有色金属行业周报：铜铝板块仍然是当前配置的重点

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper and aluminum sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these commodities [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - Recent fluctuations in base metal prices are primarily influenced by expectations of macroeconomic policy stimulus in China, with copper and aluminum prices expected to gradually rise in the long term [3]. - The supply side for copper and aluminum faces capacity constraints, with copper supply growth remaining low due to capital expenditures and operational factors, while domestic aluminum production is nearing its capacity limit [3]. - Demand for copper and aluminum is expected to remain robust, driven by post-industrial manufacturing growth and the transition of energy structures in recent years [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance Review - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a decline of 6.24%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.68 percentage points [6]. 2. Industrial Metal Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Aluminum - Policy benefits and the cost support from alumina are driving aluminum prices upward [14]. - The average profit per ton for aluminum has recovered to around 2000 RMB [3]. 2.2 Copper - Copper prices are showing a strong performance, supported by ongoing fiscal stimulus expectations in China and positive macroeconomic data from overseas [3][32]. - The average price of electrolytic copper has decreased, while copper concentrate processing fees have increased [32]. 2.3 Zinc - Zinc prices have seen a slight increase, with SMM zinc prices rising [39]. 2.4 Tin - Tin prices have also increased, reflecting a positive trend in the market [39]. 3. Precious Metal Fundamentals Tracking - Gold prices rebounded after a decline, driven by inflation expectations following the release of U.S. CPI data [3]. 4. Energy Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals Tracking 4.1 Lithium - The price of lithium carbonate has seen a slight increase, with production expected to decline due to maintenance and weather conditions [3]. 5. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the importance of monitoring key companies such as China Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., and Luoyang Molybdenum for potential investment opportunities [3].