海风海缆行业深度：招投标落地提升景气度，出海打开市场空间

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The mid-term outlook for the offshore wind industry is improving, with long-term planning ensuring sustained growth. There is a projected installation gap of 21.6GW for 2024-2025, while the newly installed capacity in Q1 2024 was only 0.69GW, indicating a significant performance inflection point ahead. The national offshore wind turbine bidding capacity reached 4.46 million kilowatts in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 56.2%, reflecting a clear improvement in industry conditions. According to GWEC, global annual offshore wind installations are expected to grow from 10.85GW in 2023 to 49.25GW by 2030, with a CAGR of 24.12% [2][6][13]. - The profit margins across the supply chain are under pressure, with a clear demand for cost reduction. Project delays due to maritime conflicts lead to increased capital expenditures and delayed revenue recognition, negatively impacting the supply chain's profitability. The average EBITDA margin for China's offshore wind supply chain companies has decreased by 36% from 2021 to 2023. The trend towards larger wind turbines is seen as a primary method for cost reduction, which can dilute component costs per unit capacity and save maritime area [2][15][16]. - There is a supply gap in overseas production capacity, with domestic leaders benefiting from order overflow. Only about 0.5% of global energy cable manufacturers could produce submarine cables as of 2022, leading to significant order backlogs for leading companies. As of H1 2024, Prysmian had orders totaling €18 billion, while NKT had €10.8 billion in orders. The expansion cycle for European submarine cable manufacturers takes 4-5 years, creating a short-term supply-demand mismatch. Domestic high-quality component manufacturers are expected to penetrate overseas supply chains and benefit from this overflow [2][24]. Summary by Sections Offshore Wind Planning - China's offshore wind planning during the 14th Five-Year Plan indicates significant installation potential, with approximately 50GW of new capacity planned across coastal provinces. By 2025, the cumulative grid-connected capacity is expected to reach around 60GW, with a minimum of 21.6GW of new installations anticipated in 2024-2025 [4][6]. Bidding and Tendering - The bidding activity has accelerated significantly, with national wind turbine bidding capacity reaching 58.75 million kilowatts in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 105.9%. Both onshore and offshore project bidding volumes have seen substantial growth, with offshore projects increasing by 56.2% compared to the previous year [6][9]. Economic Viability - Offshore wind projects are becoming economically viable, with investment costs in 2023 estimated at approximately 9,500 to 14,000 RMB per kilowatt. The average investment return rate for fixed offshore wind projects has reached 6%, indicating initial economic feasibility. However, maritime conflicts remain a significant barrier to project implementation, with up to 15GW of projects delayed due to approval issues [15][16]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The offshore wind supply chain is characterized by a significant concentration of market share among the top three companies, which collectively hold nearly 90% of the market. The profitability of submarine cables is notably high, with gross margins reaching 40-50% [25][28]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is stable, with high entry barriers due to certification, production technology, and logistical requirements. The leading companies in the submarine cable sector are actively expanding their capabilities and enhancing their competitive positions through technological advancements and strategic partnerships [28][30][36].